Lock or float? A framework, not a prediction.

The honest first principle

Nobody can predict rates. Bond markets move on Fed expectations, economic data surprises, geopolitical events, Treasury supply, and a hundred other inputs no individual lender has any edge on. If a loan officer claims certainty about where rates are headed, that's the conversation you should leave.

What you can actually control

1. Lock period. 30, 45, 60, 75, 90 day. Longer locks cost more in pricing (typically 0.05–0.15% per 15 days).
2. Float-down option. Some programs (ours included) give you a one-time float-down if rates drop more than a set threshold after lock.
3. Timing of the lock relative to your closing. Lock too early and you pay for time you don't need. Lock too late and you take rate risk during the riskiest days of the file.

The framework

Three questions:

• How fast is closing? If less than 30 days, lock. The cost of a short lock is small and the upside of floating is minimal.
• How much rate movement would change your decision? If a 0.25% increase doesn't change whether you buy, float-risk tolerance is higher. If 0.25% blows up your DTI, lock immediately.
• Is there a float-down available? A free or low-cost float-down dramatically reduces the cost of locking early. We offer this on most of our programs.

What we typically recommend

Lock at contract acceptance with a float-down. You get certainty on the worst-case payment, and if rates drop meaningfully you participate in the downside. Pricing for this structure typically costs 0.05–0.10% versus a hard lock — almost always worth it.